You could at least put Kansas at 10-2 with losses to OU and Texas.
The rest looks reasonable though. Though i think Kanas will go a maximum of 5-3 in conference.
Posted on 6/5 10:24 PM | IP: Logged
I honestly think we beat the Sooners this season. Our defense should be improved enough and with homefield advantage the Jayhawks pull the upset. Texas...well we'll see which texas team shows up. For now I'll give them the benefit of the doubt as an early MNC contender.
Posted on 6/5 10:49 PM | IP: Logged
I think the OU and TX game will be extremely tough to win. I do think that we beat all the North teams this year.
Posted on 6/8 9:11 PM | IP: Logged
I think the North winner this year is likely 5-3. I don't think any North team will get to 6-2. If there was a team(s) to get to 6-2, I think it would be Nebraska and/or KU. But, KU's schedule is nasty and I think Nebraska will slip up a game or two.
So, IMO, 5-3 with a tie-breaker wins it. Should be interesting because a person could make a case for several teams getting to 5-3. Really, the only team in the North it seems impossible to find 5 wins for if all goes well is Iowa State.
Posted on 6/9 12:40 PM | IP: Logged
Originally posted by BuyLoSellHiCat: I think the North winner this year is likely 5-3. I don't think any North team will get to 6-2. If there was a team(s) to get to 6-2, I think it would be Nebraska and/or KU. But, KU's schedule is nasty and I think Nebraska will slip up a game or two.
So, IMO, 5-3 with a tie-breaker wins it. Should be interesting because a person could make a case for several teams getting to 5-3. Really, the only team in the North it seems impossible to find 5 wins for if all goes well is Iowa State.
What are K-State's five wins?
Posted on 6/11 10:06 AM | IP: Logged
Note there being a substantial difference between predicting 5 wins and stating 5 wins can enter the conversation.
I don't think anyone would be shocked if K-State beat ISU @ Arrowhead, aTm at home, and CU at home.
That leaves:
@Tech @OU KU MU @Nebraska
Certainly not easy to pick 2 W's out of that bunch, but I don't think it is unrealistic to say KSU could pick up one of the remaining home games. Then, with a little luck, picking up a W either @ Tech or @ NU could get to 5.
In no way am I predicting that, but I think there is a 20% chance that could happen, hence being in the conversation.
I'm not going to get in the argument again, but talent wasn't KSU's biggest issue last year. Schemes/coaching was. KSU has some serious depth issues right now (and a few injuries to key players could put being competitive next year in serious jeopardy), but the starting 22 isn't as bad as the scoreboard indicated last year.
I think 3-5 is a more realistic number for K-State with 4-4 being a very good year as it likely gets KSU bowling. For where we stand, this schedule lays out nicely.....I am very glad KSU doesn't have KU's schedule this year. It would be hard to entertain 4 wins in the conversation if that were the case.
Posted on 6/11 10:44 AM | IP: Logged
But you could also lose to aTm, CU, or ISU. So you could pick up a win in those other 5 games and lose a game against the other 3. Or you could go winless against the 5 other games and only win one or two of the first 3.
I think a lot of people are underestimating aTm. They still have a ton of talent on their roster, and they've been breaking in a new coach and system. They improved throughout the season, and imo could improve even more this year. I think you guys beat ISU, though it could go the other way as well. CU will have the better team, but in Manhattan will make it a toss-up game imo. I think winning 4 games is the best case scenario if you suffer few injuries and have a few lucky bounces. If you suffer a few key injuries(I see little depth on your team thanks to Prince's high school recruiting) and have a little bit of bad luck you may be looking at only 1 conference win.....or less(I don't think that happens, but KSU doesn't hold a significant edge over anybody. They could be beat by anybody on their conference slate).
Posted on 6/11 12:33 PM | IP: Logged
...which is exactly why I stated that this was, more or less, a feasability study vs a prediction.
I always look at things like this on the bell curve.
I think KSU's most likely scenario is 3-5. Stemming from that, my rough handicapping estimates would look like:
1-7 5% 2-6 15% 3-5 40% 4-4 20% 5-3 15% Other 5%
Something along those lines. So, I think it is in the conversation, but not a likelihood by any stretch. I'd sign the dotted line now for KSU to gos 4-4, win 3 in the non-conference schedule, be competitve in more games than not, and go bowling. That would be a good start to the rebuild.
While on the topic, I'd roughly put KU on this curve:
4-4 20% 5-3 50% 6-2 20%
10% other.
Posted on 6/11 12:57 PM | IP: Logged
I see it as this:
KSU:
0-8 5% 1-7 15% 2-6 30% 3-5 30% 4-4 15% 5-3 5%
KU:
3-5 10% 4-4 35% 5-3 35% 6-2 15% 7-1 or better 5%
Posted on 6/11 1:29 PM | IP: Logged
Basically, we see KU about the same and I see KSU as being 1 game better than you. Not too far off.
And, FWIW, we should redo this after OOC games, but before conference play begins.
Posted on 6/11 1:52 PM | IP: Logged
I have absolutely no good reason to think this, but ISU may surprise this year. Talent at/near the bottom of the B12, but Rhoades may get those guys ready to snake bite some teams.
Posted on 6/11 9:51 PM | IP: Logged
I like that the SEC is so superior that one of their name brand hillbilly schools hired the worst coach in the conference.
I'm with Laner, ISU has enough of an attitude to surprise.
Posted on 6/13 2:18 AM | IP: Logged
We (ISU) feel like our offense will definately surprise a lot of people. The weak spot may be the OL, with the exception of a couple studs. The defense, again, is where we will struggle. We have phenomenal young talent at our CB spots. The safety positions need to step up. Juco David Sims, former OU signee, hopefully is an answer back there. The DL is a big question mark. Good young talent, but definately unproven. LB is without a doubt the weakest spot on the team.
Prediction: Chance to win 7 games, but likely getting 4-5 wins. I hope.
Not to be a jerk, but I think Kansas might be the overrated team in the North. I love Reesing, Meier and Sharp (heard rumors about Briscoe not being eligible?) but I'm not sure that's enough to carry them to a North title? I think they lost the heart and soul of their defense with the LB corp leaving. Didn't they lose 3 OL also?
The North may be as weak as it's been in a long time.
Posted on 6/19 11:43 AM | IP: Logged
Originally posted by ISUonthemove: We (ISU) feel like our offense will definately surprise a lot of people. The weak spot may be the OL, with the exception of a couple studs. The defense, again, is where we will struggle. We have phenomenal young talent at our CB spots. The safety positions need to step up. Juco David Sims, former OU signee, hopefully is an answer back there. The DL is a big question mark. Good young talent, but definately unproven. LB is without a doubt the weakest spot on the team.
Prediction: Chance to win 7 games, but likely getting 4-5 wins. I hope.
Not to be a jerk, but I think Kansas might be the overrated team in the North. I love Reesing, Meier and Sharp (heard rumors about Briscoe not being eligible?) but I'm not sure that's enough to carry them to a North title? I think they lost the heart and soul of their defense with the LB corp leaving. Didn't they lose 3 OL also?
The North may be as weak as it's been in a long time.
We return our DL and Secondary. We just have to replace our linebackers. So, we should be improved on the line and secondary. Our linebackers were often a weak spot for our defense last year despite being veterans. We dealt with a ton of injuries. Rivera was injured and missed some time, and even when he came back he wasn't 100%. Mortenson was recovering from an ACL tear and never was 100% and it showed. Holt was a stud all year. This year our linebackers will be less experienced, but not completely inexperienced. Arist Wright started in place of Rivera when he was injured, and they split the snaps about 50/50 after he came back. Mortenson was being spelled by Justin Springer, and towards the middle of the season Springer was taking a lot of Mortenson's snaps. Springer tore his ACL though and Mort played without a backup the rest of the year. So, Springer(assuming he's fully recovered from the ACL injury) And Wright both have a lot of talent and experience. Drew Dudley is a young linebacker who's got some experience as well. Angus Quigley is making the switch to linebacker, and talent and physical development definitely won't be an issue with him, just experience. We also have other guys who've played and we have incoming freshmen who look good. I will say this though, our younger linebackers are more suited to defend the spread than our seniors were, and we're switching to a 4-2-5 base defense to help defend the spread. We only need 2 solid linebackers(and decent depth), and we've got plenty of talent on roster to do so.
As far as our OLINE goes. Our LT is making the move to Center, his natural position. Our new LT is a TE/DE guy switching to LT. He's got the size and the athletic ability, he just needs the know-how. We've heard he's a quick learner. Mangino's evidently impressed with him and Wolf that he's moving last year's LT(Hatch) to Center despite the fact that we've already got a guy at Center who was more than capable of playing Center, showing me that the move is not made out of desperation. Our RT is the same guy as last year. Our guards will be a battle between Sal Capra, Carl Wilson, Trevor Marrongelli, John Williams, Ben Lueken, and a transfer kid from Wisconsin(can't think of his name right now). Sal Capra and Carl Wilson both played a lot of snaps last year. Capra played the entire Missouri game I believe(didn't seem to hurt us there). The kid from Wisconsin, and Ben Lueken both played last year. Ben played as a true freshmen, which I believe makes him the only true freshmen offensive linemen that's seen the field under Mangino. Ben can also play Tackle though as he's huge and athletic. So, there is plenty of experience to play those 2 spots. John Williams is a Redshirt freshmen though that may earn a starting job this year despite never having seen the field yet(injury last year). If Big John wins a starting Guard spot it won't be because KU doesn't have experience at that position, it'll be because he's one of the most talented linemen Mangino has ever signed. He'd be at OU right now if he hadn't suffered an injury after his Junior Year in high school.
Basically, KU's OL has more returning experience than it did last year. Last year we returned our entire interior, but both our tackles were guys who'd never played. This year we return both tackles(though one's moving to center) and we have several other players who've seen extensive action. Only one guy will come in Raw, but if he doesn't learn fast enough, his backup is a 4 year veteran, not exactly chopped liver.
As for Briscoe being ineligible. Just an internet rumor so far. And even if it's true, it's only June. He can take classes this summer(which he is) and regain his eligibility before Fall. I think you'd be surprised how many players do this, you have a few on your own roster.
Posted on 6/19 12:38 PM | IP: Logged
I value the defense units as such 1. D-Line 2. D-Backs 3. Linebackers
clearly if I could pick one unit to lose it would be linebackers.
Some notes on what Turinturumbar wrote:
Arist Wright also started two games as frosh he is about as experienced as back ups get.
Jake Shermer is another kid who has played alot over his career, though he is limited athletically.
And yeah the it helps that we will be a 4-2-5 team, with 5 returning defensive backs who have starting experience.
The real improvement on defense will be at the defensive line. We have three defensive tackles with starting experience, we have all four rotation tackles back. We have a redshirt freshman who is rumored to be beating out a three year starter and we sprinkle in a juco.
We have around 20 career sacks at DE, and three guys who've lettered at least twice. Jake Laptad had a break out season last year as a sophmore with 7 sacks and he is the first legitmate pass rushing DE we've had since Charlton Keith. Max Onyegbule was the story of our spring session. We add a four star juco who originally signed with Michigan and is on campus. Then we have a freshman who had over 20 offers and was on campus for spring ball, apparently he has impressed and will not redshirt.
On the subject of the offensive line, I put higher value on tackles than I do the interior. I would much rather replace three interior lineman than two tackles. jmo
Our transfer from Wisconsin, Brad Thorsen, played as a redshirt freshman. He could easily be our starting center if the staff wasn't so high on Hatch. Hatch could also bump out to left tackle if he needed to, but the staff is extremely high on Hawkinson.
Because of injuries Capra probably got more snaps than departed starter Chet Hartley down the stretch.
Worst case scenario is KU could always go back to Hatch and Spikes at tackle and have three guys with solid experience on the interior.
This post was edited on 6/19 1:42 PM by GChawk
Posted on 6/19 1:39 PM | IP: Logged
I was over at the GPC board today and most of the cat fans think BuyLow's projections for KSU football wins this season are low. 4 votes for 4 wins or less. 8 votes for 5-6 wins. 6 votes for 7-8 wins. 2 votes for 9 or more wins.
Posted on 6/24 3:31 PM | IP: Logged
I think it is simple this year. KU is the favorite to win the North but whoever goes 2-1 or 3-0 between MU, KU and NU will be the North champs. I don't think CU, KSU or ISU have enough to do it. MU has NU at home and KU at Arrowhead, where anything can happen, so don't overlook the Tigers. Injuries are HUGE as well for teams in the North. We do not have the depth like OU or Texes so if one of these teams gets banged up it could make the difference.
Posted on 6/24 8:01 PM | IP: Logged
Originally posted by BuyLoSellHiCat: I think 3-5 is a more realistic number for K-State with 4-4 being a very good year as it likely gets KSU bowling.
3-5 won't get KSU to a bowl game unless the sweep their non-con schedule. KSU has to go 7-5 to be bowl eligible this year with 2 Div 1-AA games.
Posted on 6/27 1:03 AM | IP: Logged
We arent going 11-1.
Texas, we just arent going to win, not that we will just roll over and die, but they will be too tough.
Oklahoma at home. We have a punchers chance in this game, but Id put it at 15-22%, so I'll count that as a loss as well.
The key for our season is @TTU and @ Colorado. Winning on the road is tough, CU always seems like they are ready to break out and never do so Im not quite as worried about it until they show they have.
Im not worried about Nebraska. Its not they dont have talent, just being at home though for Reesing, Meiers, and Stuckeys last home game, plus it being the biggest game of the year, makes me worry less than going on the road.
Posted on 6/27 1:44 AM | IP: Logged
Originally posted by ISUonthemove: We (ISU) feel like our offense will definately surprise a lot of people. The weak spot may be the OL, with the exception of a couple studs. The defense, again, is where we will struggle. We have phenomenal young talent at our CB spots. The safety positions need to step up. Juco David Sims, former OU signee, hopefully is an answer back there. The DL is a big question mark. Good young talent, but definately unproven. LB is without a doubt the weakest spot on the team.
Prediction: Chance to win 7 games, but likely getting 4-5 wins. I hope.
Not to be a jerk, but I think Kansas might be the overrated team in the North. I love Reesing, Meier and Sharp (heard rumors about Briscoe not being eligible?) but I'm not sure that's enough to carry them to a North title? I think they lost the heart and soul of their defense with the LB corp leaving. Didn't they lose 3 OL also?
The North may be as weak as it's been in a long time.
Your offense might very well surprise a lot of people. But Beating Kansas? Now that is another thing.
Posted on 7/6 11:04 AM | IP: Logged
I copied my post from another BXIIN Prediction post:
Kansas W 1-0 vs Northern Colorado W 2-0 @ UTEP W 3-0 vs Duke W 4-0 vs Southern Miss W 5-0 vs Iowa State W 6-0 @ Colorado L 6-1 vs OU L 6-2 @ Texas Tech W 7-2 @ K-State W 8-2 vs Nebraska L 8-3 @ Texas W 9-3 vs Missouri at Arrowhead 9-3 (5-3)
Nebraska W 1-0 vs Florida Atlantic W 2-0 vs Arkansas State L 2-1 @ Virginia Tech W 3-1 vs Louisiana-Lafayette W 4-1 @ Missouri W 5-1 vs Texas Tech W 6-1 vs Iowa State W 7-1 @ Baylor L 7-2 vs Oklahoma L 7-3 @ KU W 8-3 vs Kansas State W 9-3 @ Colorado 9-3 (6-2)
Missouri L 0-1 vs Illinois in St. Louis W 1-1 vs Bowling Green W 2-1 vs SMU L 2-2 @ Nevada L 2-3 vs Nebraska L 2-4 @ OK State L 2-5 vs Texas L 2-6 @ Colorado W 3-6 vs Baylor L 3-7 @ K-State L 3-8 vs KU at Arrowhead W 4-8 Iowa St 4-8 (2-6)
Colorado W 1-0 vs Colorado State W 2-0 @ Miami Ohio W 3-0 vs Wyoming L 3-1 @ West Virginia L 3-2 @ Texas L 3-3 vs Kansas W 4-3 @ K-State W 5-3 vs Missouri W 6-3 vs Texas A&M W 7-3 @ Iowa State L 7-4 @ Oklahoma State L 7-5 vs Nebraska 7-5 (4-4)
what are K-State and Iowa State's schedules?
So far I have: 1. Nebraska (6-2) 2. Kansas (5-3) 3. Colorado (4-4) 4. Missouri (2-6)
Missouri seems a bit harsh at 2-6 but I see a big drop off in offense with losing Chase, Coffman, Maclin, etc plus a new OC combined with a defense that I am not too impressed with. Of course, if the new guys reload, I could see them go 8-4 (4-4) easily.
Of course we can count on xHx to save all of our predictions so we can review it at the conclusion of next year.
Posted on 7/17 8:35 AM | IP: Logged
I think Kansas, Mizzou an Nebraska have very strong cases on why they should be the favorite to win the north.
I personally think IF and this is a BIG IF Zac Lee plays well and there isnt to much of a drop off at QB we will win the north.
with that said i think Kansas will have the best football team from the north, but there schedule is brutal compared to NU or MU. Kansas plays at Texas Tech, Texas and Colorado (who might be decent) and have Oklahoma at home.
i think this is going to be a very close 3 team race.
Posted on 7/30 8:54 AM | IP: Logged
Originally posted by That70'sShow: I think Kansas, Mizzou an Nebraska have very strong cases on why they should be the favorite to win the north.
I personally think IF and this is a BIG IF Zac Lee plays well and there isnt to much of a drop off at QB we will win the north.
with that said i think Kansas will have the best football team from the north, but there schedule is brutal compared to NU or MU. Kansas plays at Texas Tech, Texas and Colorado (who might be decent) and have Oklahoma at home.
i think this is going to be a very close 3 team race.
If Zac Lee turns out to be a gamer and they find at least one great WR threat, NU could be pretty damn good.
If Woods lives up to potential as a pass rusher, and our LB play is just adequate, our defense will improve dramatically from last year which could translate into us being pretty damn good. IMO NU has more balance, but KU's upside is greater for this year. If we knock off just one of the South teams I see us winning the North. If we lose to all 3, we could still sweep the North and win it, which is not out of the question.
Posted on 7/30 1:16 PM | IP: Logged
Originally posted by Turinturumbar:
Originally posted by That70'sShow: I think Kansas, Mizzou an Nebraska have very strong cases on why they should be the favorite to win the north.
I personally think IF and this is a BIG IF Zac Lee plays well and there isnt to much of a drop off at QB we will win the north.
with that said i think Kansas will have the best football team from the north, but there schedule is brutal compared to NU or MU. Kansas plays at Texas Tech, Texas and Colorado (who might be decent) and have Oklahoma at home.
i think this is going to be a very close 3 team race.
they find at least one great WR threat
Antonio Bell, guy has the athletic ability to be our best WR ever. Now, lets see if he can put it together on the field.
Then our definite starters this year. Reports have said Paul has taken his game to another level, Holt is a reliable possesion receiver like Peterson was, and Brandon Kinnie my be pushing for Big 12 Newcomer of the year... not kidding either. One of our coaches have already commented saying, "Purify... but faster and more athletic..."
Posted on 7/30 3:37 PM | IP: Logged
Originally posted by slick1979uk:
Originally posted by Turinturumbar:
Originally posted by That70'sShow: I think Kansas, Mizzou an Nebraska have very strong cases on why they should be the favorite to win the north.
I personally think IF and this is a BIG IF Zac Lee plays well and there isnt to much of a drop off at QB we will win the north.
with that said i think Kansas will have the best football team from the north, but there schedule is brutal compared to NU or MU. Kansas plays at Texas Tech, Texas and Colorado (who might be decent) and have Oklahoma at home.
i think this is going to be a very close 3 team race.
they find at least one great WR threat
Antonio Bell, guy has the athletic ability to be our best WR ever. Now, lets see if he can put it together on the field.
Then our definite starters this year. Reports have said Paul has taken his game to another level, Holt is a reliable possesion receiver like Peterson was, and Brandon Kinnie my be pushing for Big 12 Newcomer of the year... not kidding either. One of our coaches have already commented saying, "Purify... but faster and more athletic..."
I've heard Kinnie is REAL good. Hopefully Clark sticks with his commitment to KU. It would be fun to see a Clark/Kinnie battle. Supposedly Clark was the only guy who could cover Kinnie. That could be an interesting matchup in '10
Posted on 7/30 8:39 PM | IP: Logged
Originally posted by Turinturumbar:
Originally posted by slick1979uk:
Originally posted by Turinturumbar:
Originally posted by That70'sShow: I think Kansas, Mizzou an Nebraska have very strong cases on why they should be the favorite to win the north.
I personally think IF and this is a BIG IF Zac Lee plays well and there isnt to much of a drop off at QB we will win the north.
with that said i think Kansas will have the best football team from the north, but there schedule is brutal compared to NU or MU. Kansas plays at Texas Tech, Texas and Colorado (who might be decent) and have Oklahoma at home.
i think this is going to be a very close 3 team race.
they find at least one great WR threat
Antonio Bell, guy has the athletic ability to be our best WR ever. Now, lets see if he can put it together on the field.
Then our definite starters this year. Reports have said Paul has taken his game to another level, Holt is a reliable possesion receiver like Peterson was, and Brandon Kinnie my be pushing for Big 12 Newcomer of the year... not kidding either. One of our coaches have already commented saying, "Purify... but faster and more athletic..."
I've heard Kinnie is REAL good. Hopefully Clark sticks with his commitment to KU. It would be fun to see a Clark/Kinnie battle. Supposedly Clark was the only guy who could cover Kinnie. That could be an interesting matchup in '10
With how talented Clark and Kinnie are supposed to be. It will also be interesting to see what they can accomplish with D-1 coaches and a D-1 strength and training program. I am happy that Kinnie is a sophomore JUCO transfer. That gives him plenty to develope.
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