But you could also lose to aTm, CU, or ISU. So you could pick up a win in those other 5 games and lose a game against the other 3. Or you could go winless against the 5 other games and only win one or two of the first 3.
I think a lot of people are underestimating aTm. They still have a ton of talent on their roster, and they've been breaking in a new coach and system. They improved throughout the season, and imo could improve even more this year. I think you guys beat ISU, though it could go the other way as well. CU will have the better team, but in Manhattan will make it a toss-up game imo. I think winning 4 games is the best case scenario if you suffer few injuries and have a few lucky bounces. If you suffer a few key injuries(I see little depth on your team thanks to Prince's high school recruiting) and have a little bit of bad luck you may be looking at only 1 conference win.....or less(I don't think that happens, but KSU doesn't hold a significant edge over anybody. They could be beat by anybody on their conference slate).